Methionine Price Forecast 2026: Market Trends and Analysis

The 2026 outlook for methionine prices is increasingly shaped by a new wave of capacity expansion announcements – primarily in China, and from other agrochemical and adjacent industry players.

Our internal Kemiex feed consumption model and capacity database highlights a potentially shocking long-term utilization outlook.

The blue “aggressive” (worst-case) utilization scenario includes most known announced projects, assuming to ramp-up in 2028 – but excludes some unconfirmed, speculative plans outside China.

The chart puts baseline consumption growth at low-single-digit % under various capacity expansion scenarios. Our best-case consumption scenario would foresee a mid-single-digit % growth.

Unexpectedly, this adds to the streak of mega-expansions we’ve seen recently for other amino acids and nutritional raw materials. Some of which have been, frankly, worrying from an economic standpoint.

Methionine has largely escaped this trend as it remains a capital-intensive asset to expand and operate. Some say that a plant must deliver +150 kt/a output to be economically sustainable.

If these expansions come to fruition (and there are valid questions about project feasibility, timelines and market adoption in animal nutrition), the worst-case scenario is familiar: oversupply, “involution” and fierce competition, as we’ve seen with other ingredients.

Methionine will likely remain a regional market to some extent, with the US and EU having significant local production, and the US somewhat shielded by anti-dumping measures and tariffs.

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