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Here is what you need to know before your Q4 L-Lysine HCl 98% FCA Europe call.

Price level

The current FCA Europe benchmark, Kemiex Price Benchmarks, weekly, is EUR 1.60/kg as of 3 August 2026. The recent trajectory is notably soft.

The 30-point Simple Moving Average, SMA, sits at ~EUR 1.98/kg vs the latest print of EUR 1.60/kg, confirming the price is well below its recent trend. The market has moved sharply lower over 4Q/1Q and has not yet recovered.

⚠️ Critical regulatory risk, EU import registration, act before Q4

This is the single most important factor for your negotiation. As of 29 July 2026, the European Commission ordered EU customs authorities to register all L-Lysine imports originating in China , effective 30 July 2026. This creates a legal basis for retroactive collection of anti-dumping duties under an ongoing absorption investigation .

Key facts

Practical implication for Q4: Any Chinese-origin tonnes you buy FCA Europe arriving after 30 July 2026 are potentially subject to retroactive duties. For 400 tonnes, even a moderate additional duty rate represents meaningful landed cost exposure. Clarify with your supplier the origin and duty status of the material, and consider whether contract language covers this contingency.

Market chatter, Europe

Kemiex’s current market note for L-Lysine HCl 98% FCA Europe reads.

“Maintenance shutdowns May to Jul; EU opens anti-dumping absorption probe/registers imports; Brazil imposes definitive China anti-dumping, US affirmed final AD/CVD rates.”

This aligns with a broader global wave of anti-dumping actions against Chinese lysine. Brazil (definitive measures) and the US (final anti-dumping/countervailing duty rates) have both moved in parallel with the EU probe.

Chinese export volumes, your supplier’s context

Chinese L-Lysine exports were +9% year-on-year in 1H 2026 , adding ~+48,100 mt, among the largest absolute volume gains of any tracked ingredient, Kemiex report, 29 July 2026 . This confirms Chinese supply remains aggressive in volume terms even as anti-dumping actions accumulate, which is precisely what the absorption probe is investigating, prices adjusted to absorb existing duties.

Negotiation angles for your call

Here is your full pushback toolkit for the Choline Chloride 60% corn cob price negotiation.

The benchmark says prices are already elevated, not flat

The Kemiex Price Benchmarks show Choline Chloride 60% corn cob has already risen sharply in recent months.

Key argument: The market has already absorbed significant upward movement over the past month. Your supplier asking for a further +6% on top of a price that has already moved up substantially is a double increment, not a catch-up.

Raw material context, real cost pressure, but stabilising

The market chatter is direct about what is driving supplier cost claims.

Key argument: The input cost spike is already in the rearview mirror. TMA and EO are not rising further; they are plateauing.

Amino acid price performance, February to August 2026, FOB China, USD/kg, Kemiex Price Benchmarks.

The dominant story across amino acids over the past six months is a sharp tariff-driven spike in March and April followed by an extended retreat. Only DL-Methionine retains a meaningfully higher price versus six months ago.

Six-month scorecard

The story behind the numbers

March/April spike, US tariffs: Every amino acid surged hard in March and peaked in April as US tariff escalation on Chinese goods drove a wave of pre-buying and supply uncertainty.

DL-Methionine, as the highest-value product with concentrated supply, saw the most violent move, +160% peak-to-trough from February to April.

Vitamin A 1000, Europe (FCA) vs FOB China, August 2025 to August 2026.

Both series tell the same macro story, but the spread between them has widened significantly and reveals important structural dynamics.

The twelve-month arc, three distinct phases

Phase 1, gradual slide (Aug-Dec 2025). Both regions drifted lower in tandem. FOB China fell from USD 18.14 to a trough of USD 15.39 in late December.

The slide reflected normalising supply after prior production disruptions and building Chinese inventory.

Phase 2, tariff spike (Mar-Apr 2026). A sharp synchronised rally drove both benchmarks to their twelve-month peaks. FOB China reached USD 23.99 while FCA Europe peaked at USD 25.62.

Here is the full phosphate sourcing picture based on Kemiex Trade Flows customs data, China-declared exports, as China is the dominant global exporter for both products tracked.

Phosphoric acids, a surge that is now being tested

China’s phosphoric acid exports have been on a multi-year upward trajectory, but 2026 is showing the first signs of a pullback.

The 2025 full-year total of 1.19 mmt is extraordinary, more than doubling the 2021 level in four years.

Top destinations, 2025 to 1H 2026 combined

Dicalcium phosphate (DCP), breakout growth with Vietnam at the centre

I don’t make price predictions, and giving you a directional call here would not be responsible, too many variables are in play simultaneously.

What I can tell you is what the current evidence shows, and you can weigh it yourself.

Factors that could support prices